According to the latest article from the International Monetary Fund, despite facing multiple challenges such as high tariffs, weakened external demand, and policy uncertainty, Asian economies have shown resilience beyond expectations. This resilience is attributed to export-oriented strategies, technological investment, and policy support. To maintain strong and sustainable growth in the future, Asian countries urgently need to promote a transformation of their economic structures towards domestic demand and accelerate deepening regional integration.

Economic growth exceeds expectations

Despite being at the centre of global trade policy adjustments, Asia will remain the most important engine of global growth, contributing about 60% to global growth this year and next. According to the IMF's forecast, the economic growth rate in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to slow from 4.5% this year to 4.1% next year, but overall it remains more robust than previously expected. Inflation is expected to remain moderate. China's growth is projected to slow from 4.8% to 4.2%, while Japan's growth is expected to fall from 1.1% to 0.6%. Although India will still expand at a rate of 6.6% this year, it is expected to decline to 6.2% next year. South Korea is expected to achieve 1.8% growth, while ASEAN economies are expected to maintain 4.3% expansion for the second consecutive year. The article points out that the resilience of Asia's economy is largely built on several factors: exporters speeding up shipments before tariffs take effect, reorganisation of regional supply chains, technology export cycles driven by artificial intelligence, and monetary easing and targeted fiscal support policies adopted by multiple countries. Financial factors such as a weaker US dollar, rising stock markets, and lower bond yields also support growth.

The economic outlook faces several risks

However, the article warns that behind short-term resilience, there are also hidden risks: tariffs may escalate again, stricter rules of origin could restrict transhipment, supply chains may still be disrupted, and a tightening global financial environment would pose a significant challenge to Asia. In addition, some countries are facing structural constraints such as an ageing population, slowing productivity, weak domestic demand, and increasing social pressures.

Rebalancing Economic Growth

To this end, the Fund recommends that countries' policies should focus in the near term on absorbing shocks, reducing policy uncertainty, and providing targeted support for vulnerable groups. Most Asian economies, due to relatively low price levels, can continue to maintain moderately accommodative monetary policies and use exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks. At the same time, horizontal reforms should be promoted, the business environment improved, and social safety nets strengthened to stimulate private consumption and unlock capital potential. In the medium term, fiscal repair, capital efficiency restructuring, and industrial structure optimisation are also considered key. The article also emphasises that capital should flow more to areas with high efficiency and sustainable development potential, rather than being confined to conservative sectors. Deepening regional integration is also a core strategy for achieving long-term sustainable development. By reducing non-tariff barriers, liberalising services and digital trade, and easing restrictions on foreign investment, more investment can be attracted, trade diversification promoted, and support provided for the restructuring supply chains. In summary, the Fund believes that while Asian economies have shown resilience amid changes, the challenges they face are becoming increasingly complex and severe. In the coming years, only by deepening domestic demand, strengthening regional cooperation, and advancing structural reforms can sustained, inclusive, and resilient growth in Asia be supported.

This article is from the United Nations News, article link: 基金组织：亚洲经济在关税与不确定性中展现韧性 | | 1联合国新闻 (un.org)