Between brittleness and toughness: the fog and path of the global economy in 2025

In this report, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.0%, up from the 2.8% forecast in April, and expects further growth to 3.1% in 2026. This should be an encouraging indicator, but this 'report card' is inseparable from the short-term effects of a series of human interventions. The most critical variable is tariff policy. From July 27, China and the United States launched the third tariff negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, and the two sides decided to extend the 'current suspension of tariffs' for another 90 days. Other economies such as Japan and South Korea reached a temporary easing agreement with the United States after tariff negotiations and postponed the deadline for further tax increases to August 1. This 'respite period' prompted enterprises and consumers to accelerate import and export operations, setting off a round of 'grabbing imports' effect, and promoting a brief jump in trade volume and enterprise investment. At the same time, the 'Big and Beautiful Act' passed by the United States has provided businesses with a large amount of tax incentives and fiscal spending, further stimulating economic growth. The strong rebound in U.S. stocks, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the increase in capital inflows into emerging markets have collectively created an 'unexpectedly loose' financial environment, giving global markets signs of prosperity.

UNCTAD: Global FDI to fall by 8% in 2024.

The UNCTAD's Global Investment Trends Monitor report shows FDI is at a crossroads. In 2024, global FDI grew 11% to about £1.4 trillion but fell 8% excluding flows through European transit economies. Advanced economies had stark contrasts: FDI in North America rose 13% due to US M&A growth and greenfield project surges, while Europe faced a sharp decline with many EU countries seeing drops. Among developing economies, FDI fell 2% for the second - consecutive year, threatening SDG progress. Asia's FDI inflows dropped 7%, with China down 29% and India up 13%. In Latin America and the Caribbean, FDI fell 9%, but some countries saw greenfield project growth. Africa stood out with an 84% surge. Looking ahead to 2025, FDI is expected to grow modestly, but risks like geopolitical tensions and economic instability remain challenges.

Global Seaborne Trade Is Recovering, But There Are Still Many Challenges

The United Nations Trade and Development Organization's 2024 Maritime Review report released on Tuesday showed that global maritime trade grew by 2.4% in 2023, recovering from the contraction in 2022. However, despite the signs of recovery, the future growth of maritime transport remains fragile and there are still many risks and uncertainties.

United Nations Trade and Development Organization: Global trade trends improved in the fir......

UNCTAD's forecast report notes that trade in goods is expected to increase by about $250 billion in the first half of 2024 and $100 billion in services compared to the second half of 2023, driven by strong trade dynamics in United States and developing countries, especially large developing economies in Asia.