UNCTAD's forecast report notes that trade in goods is expected to increase by about $250 billion in the first half of 2024 and $100 billion in services compared to the second half of 2023, driven by strong trade dynamics in United States and developing countries, especially large developing economies in Asia.

  According to the report, global GDP growth in 2024 is still forecast at around 3%, and the short-term trade outlook is cautiously optimistic. If the positive trend continues, global trade could reach nearly $32 trillion in 2024, but it is unlikely to surpass the record levels of 2022.

  China, India and United States drive global trade

  According to the report, the main drivers of global trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 came from export growth in China (9%), India (7%) and United States (3%). On the contrary, exports from Europe did not grow, and exports from Africa fell by 5%.

  South-South trade leads the way

In the first quarter of 2024, both developing country trade and South-South trade imports and exports grew by about 2 percent, the report said. In contrast, imports in developed countries were flat, while exports increased slightly by 1%.

However, the annual growth rate of South-South trade decreased by 5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023.

  The green energy and artificial intelligence sectors are growing strongly

  The report notes that trade growth varies significantly across sectors, with growth in green energy and AI-related products being stronger.

Compared to the first quarter of 2023, trade in high-performance servers increased by 25%, and trade in other computers and storage devices increased by 8%. Trade in electric vehicles has also grown significantly, by about 25%. (Reprinted from UN News Network, address UNCTAD: 联合国贸易和发展组织：2024年第一季度全球贸易趋势转好 | | 1联合国新闻 (un.org)