The United Nations Trade and Development Organization's 2024 Maritime Review report released on Tuesday showed that global maritime trade grew by 2.4% in 2023, recovering from the contraction in 2022. However, despite the signs of recovery, the future growth of maritime transport remains fragile and there are still many risks and uncertainties.

    According to the report, geopolitical tensions, conflicts and the increasing impact of climate change on the world's vital shipping lanes pose a serious threat to the stability of global supply chains, particularly on vulnerable economies that rely on maritime transport, such as small island developing States and least developed countries.

    The report highlights that the problem of false ship registrations has grown in recent years, posing a threat to global maritime safety, pollution control and crew welfare. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is investigating this issue.

Vulnerabilities in key shipping lanes are heightened, and supply chains are facing serious challenges

    While more than 80% of the world's trade depends on sea, key shipping lanes such as the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal and the Red Sea are frequently affected by geopolitics and climate change, leading to longer routes, higher costs and increased risk of supply chain disruptions, with far-reaching implications for food security, energy supplies and the global economy, according to the report.

In 2023, traffic on the world's key canals will be reduced by nearly half, and ships will be forced to detour the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, increasing transportation costs and time, the report noted. Lengthening routes will not only increase fuel, wages, insurance, and lease costs, but will also lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

Global seaborne trade is picking up, but geopolitical and climate risks remain

    According to the report, global seaborne trade increased by 2.4% in 2023 to 12.3 billion tons, reversing the contraction in 2022. Seaborne trade is expected to grow by 2% in 2024 and continue to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4% through 2029. However, the "extremely difficult operating environment" caused by geopolitical conflicts and climate change continues to constrain the long-term recovery of seaborne trade.The report notes that while demand for iron ore, coal and grains remains strong, the growth of container traffic in 2023 remains weak. At the same time, the number of container ships calling at ports in the second half of 2023 hit a record of nearly 250,000 due to trade growth and extended routes, and some Asian ports experienced severe congestion.

Rising freight rates exacerbate inflation and threaten global economic growth

    According to the report, global ocean freight rates will continue to climb in 2024 due to factors such as route extensions, port congestion and increased operating costs. UNCTAD expects that if freight rates continue to rise, global consumer prices will be pushed higher, with higher transport costs driving up global consumer prices by 0.6 per cent by 2025.

The report shows that rising transport costs are disproportionately affecting vulnerable economies that rely on maritime transport, particularly small island developing states, and could lead to reduced trade competitiveness, impaired economic stability, and increased inflation risks. By 2025, consumer prices in these countries could rise by 0.9 percent and processed food prices by 1.3 percent, endangering food security.

    The above content is reproduced from: UNCTAD: Global seaborne trade recovers, but still faces many challenges | 1UN News (un.org)

贸发组织：全球海运贸易复苏，但仍面临诸多挑战 | | 1联合国新闻 (un.org)